❄️ Economic Winter Dashboard Update

Global Economy & Canada: Late Autumn 🍂 or Moving Into Winter ❄️?

Executive Assessment

The evidence this month suggests the global economy—and Canada in particular has moved further into an Early Winter phase, although not yet into the full debt-deflation cascade seen in historical crises. The most important change is that stress is increasingly evident in household balance sheets, mortgage renewals, business credit demand, and delinquency trends, even as asset markets remain elevated. This combination is characteristic of a transition period rather than a completed Winter. The LongWave thesis is being moderately confirmed, but the timing remains slower than many debt-cycle models would predict.

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