🚨Higher Than 1929. Higher Than 2000. Still Climbing.
U.S. equity valuations just set a 126-year record. Peter Cundill told us what that means. Almost nobody is listening.
A Test for Financial Advisors: The Two Autumns
Valuations sit at 172% above the long-term mean — higher than 1929, higher than 2000. Cundill said valuations measure risk, not timing. From here, Economic Winter is no longer a forecast. It is an outstanding obligation.
The chart above shows the average of four valuation indicators going back to 1900. Crestmont P/E. Cyclical P/E 10. Q Ratio. S&P Composite regressed against its long-term trend. Four independent measures, each constructed differently, blended into one geometric average.
As of April 2026, that composite reads 172% above its long-term mean.
Higher than 1929. Higher than 2000. The most extreme reading in 126 years of recorded data.
Pause and look at the chart again. Two peaks should jump out at any student of long-wave history.
My concern, I hope I am wrong!
The rest contiues below.
