A Rolling Global Kuznets Top
China first. New Zealand. Canada.
Now potentially Australia.
BIS data suggest the danger isn’t a synchronized peak, but increasingly synchronized downside.
For years, investors have been conditioned to think about real estate in national terms.
Canadian housing.
Australian housing.
Chinese housing.
U.S. housing.
But the latest BIS data suggest that this may be the wrong way to think about the current cycle.
The more useful framework may be a rolling global Kuznets top.
Not one synchronized global peak.
Not one global crash date.
Rather, a sequence of property markets peaking at different times—first by country, then by province or state, then by city, and even by property type.
That distinction matters because it may explain why the global housing downturn can initially look surprisingly mild.
One market is falling while another is still rising.
One province is weakening while another remains strong.
One city has already entered a bear market while another is making new highs.
The aggregate looks stable.
Until it doesn’t.
